RESUMO A inseminação artificial (IA) é a biotecnologia mais empregada com vantagens superiores em relação a utilização da monta natural, cuja eficácia se dá na larga escala de reprodução entre os bovinos. Associando essa biotécnica com hormônios pode-se estabelecer manipulações do sistema reprodutivo da fêmea, levando a manejos de inúmeras cabeças de gado para inseminar a um tempo fixo. Portanto, foram realizados 5 protocolos de IATF, tendo 2 categorias de animais: nulíparas e multíparas. No protocolo 1 foram submetidas 81 multíparas, (...) resultando em 47 animais prenhes; No protocolo 2 foram protocoladas 103 animais multíparas, no qual resultou em 51 prenhes; já o protocolo 5 foram submetidas 77 animais multíparas, no qual resultou em 36 animais prenhes. Cada serviço realizado foi matematicamente calculado, sendo o ponto de partida o escore corporal, bem estar animal e a técnica bem exercida. Desta forma obteve bons resultados na (IATF) , no qual destaca-se o percentual : o protocolo 1 obteve 58,02%, o protocolo 2 obteve 49,51% na taxa de prenhez, No protocolo 3 obteve 55,67% na taxa de prenhez, o protocolo 4 obteve 53,33% de prenhes, já o protocolo 5 resultou em 46,75% de prenhez. O uso das biotecnologias da reprodução, realizadas em bovinos de corte, obteve resultado dentro do descrito pela literatura consultada. A boa taxa de prenhes apresentada na IATF deveu-se ao bom controle hormonal do ciclo estral e da qualidade do sêmen utilizado. A taxa de prenhez dos animais que foram submetidos à monta natural foi baixa pelo fato de que os reprodutores não conseguiram cobrir todas as fêmeas. ABSTRACT The artificial insemination (AI) is the most used biotechnology with superior advantages in relation to the use of natural mounting, whose effectiveness is given in the large scale of reproduction among cattle. Associating this biotechnique with hormones it is possible to establish manipulations of the reproductive system of the female, leading to managements of numerous heads of cattle to inseminate at a fixed time. Therefore, 5 IATF protocols were performed, having 2 categories of animals: nulliparous and multiparous. In protocol 1, 81 multiparous animals were submitted, resulting in 47 pregnant animals; in protocol 2, 103 multiparous animals were submitted, resulting in 51 pregnancies; and in protocol 5, 77 multiparous animals were submitted, resulting in 36 pregnant animals. Each service performed was mathematically calculated, with the starting point being the body score, animal welfare and the well exercised technique. Thus obtained good results in the (IATF), which highlights the percentage: protocol 1 obtained 58.02%, protocol 2 obtained 49.51% in pregnancy rate, in protocol 3 obtained 55.67% in pregnancy rate, protocol 4 obtained 53.33% pregnant, and protocol 5 resulted in 46.75% pregnant. The use of the reproduction biotechnologies, performed in beef cattle, obtained results within the described by the consulted literature. The good pregnancy rate presented in the IATF was due to the good hormonal control of the estrous cycle and the quality of the semen used. The pregnancy rate of animals that were subjected to natural mating was low due to the fact that the sires could not cover all the females. Keywords: Hormones. Cattle Pregnancy Rate. Artificial Insemination in Cattle. Hormones in Cattle Reproduction. -/- REFERÊNCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS AMBRÓSIO, P. H. et al. Ressincronização da ovulação em programas de IATF: novas estratégias. 2018. BARUSELLI, P. S.; GIMENES, L. U.; SALES, J. N. de S. Fisiologia reprodutiva de fêmeas taurinas e zebuínas. Revista Brasileira de Reprodução Animal, v. 31, n. 2, p. 205-211, 2007. BARUSELLI, P. S. et al. Evolução e perspectivas da inseminação artificial em bovinos. Revista Brasileira de Reprodução Animal, v. 43, n. 2, p. 308-314, 2019. BÓ, G. A. et al. Alternative programs for synchronizing and resynchronizing ovulation in beef cattle. Theriogenology, v. 86, n. 1, p. 388-396, 2016. BOTTINO, M. P. et al. Effects of eCG and FSH in timed artificial insemination treatment regimens on estrous expression and pregnancy rates in primiparous and multiparous Bos indicus cows. Animal Reproduction Science, v. 228, p. 106751, 2021. DA SILVA, Emanuel Isaque Cordeiro. Técnica da Inseminação Artificial em Bovinos: Manejo Passo a Passo. 2020. DA SILVA, Emanuel Isaque Cordeiro. Reprodução Animal: Inseminação Artificial. 2020. DA SILVA, Emanuel Isaque Cordeiro. Fisiologia da Reprodução Animal: Ovulação, Controle e Sincronização do Cio. 2020. DA SILVA, Emanuel Isaque Cordeiro. Fisiologia da Reprodução de Bovinos Leiteiros: Aspectos Básicos e Clínicos. Emanuel Isaque Cordeiro da Silva, 2022. KRAUS, Beth M.; PARENTE, Eric J.; TULLENERS, Eric P. Laryngoplasty with ventriculectomy or ventriculocordectomy in 104 draft horses (1992–2000). Veterinary Surgery, v. 32, n. 6, p. 530-538, 2003. MONGELLI, Melissa Sanches; TAVARES, Izabel Cristina; FERRANTE, Marcos. Evolução e premissas dos protocolos hormonais de inseminação artificial em tempo fixo na pecuária. Ciência Animal, v. 31, n. 1, p. 119-133, 2021. VILELA, G. C. Protocolos de IATF em novilhas precoce e super precoce. 2021. (shrink)

Resumo: Sabe-se que a pecuária é uma parcela do agronegócio que move a economia do país, e incluso está a produção leiteira, que tem, a cada ano seu desenvolvimento elevado, de forma em que é priorizado a eficiência no aumento de sua produção, com o objetivo de suprir a demanda, e a maior rentabilidade do produtor. Diante disso, medidas de manejo reprodutivo e alimentar são adotadas, sendo estas capazes de elevar a produtividade com o menor custo possível. O trabalho objetivou (...) pautar acerca do conhecimento sobre o manejo nutricional correto e escore corporal, que afetam diretamente a produtividade do animal, o conhecimento acerca do ciclo reprodutivo de vacas, expondo a detecção de estro, bem como metodologias eficazes aplicadas na reprodução, e práticas de bem estar, que, quando ausente, é apontado como um dos precursores da ineficiência reprodutiva. Palavras-chave: Inseminação Artificial 1; detecção de cio 2; leite 3. Abstract: It is known that livestock is a part of agribusiness that drives the country's economy, and is even milk production, which has, every year, its high development, so that it is prioritizing efficiency in increasing its production, with the objective of supplying the demand, and the greater producer profitability. Therefore, reproductive and food management measures are adopted, being able to increase productivity with the lowest possible cost. The work aimed guide about knowledge about correct nutritional management and body score, which affect directly the animal's productivity, knowledge about the reproductive cycle of cows, exposing estrus detection, as well as effective methodologies applied in reproduction, and practices of well-being, which, when absent, is pointed out as one of the precursors of inefficiency reproductive. Keywords: Artificial Insemination 1; heat detection 2; milk 3. -/- REFERÊNCIAS BIBLIOGRÁFICAS ALFIERI, A. A. LEME, R. ALFIERI, A.F. Tecnologias para o manejo sanitário de qualidade de doenças infecciosas na bovinocultura de corte. Bovinocultura de corte: desafios e tecnologias. Revista eletrônica da Universidade Federal da Bahia - UFBA. ed. 2. v. 1. p. 115-132. 2013. ARBOLEDA, José Leonardo Ruiz; URIBE-VELÁSQUEZ, Luis Fernando; OSORIO, José Henry. Factor de crecimiento semejante a insulina tipo 1 (IGF-1) en la reproducción de la hembra bovina. Vet. zootec, v. 5, n. 2, p. 68-81, 2011. BAUMGARD, L.; RHOADS, R. Efeito do estresse calórico no metabolismo e na produção de leite, e estratégias para minimizar efeitos negativos. Em: XVI Curso Novos Enfoques na Produção e Reprodução de Bovinos. Uberlandia, Brasil, 2012. BARUSELLI, P. S. et al. Evolução e perspectivas da inseminação artificial em bovinos. Revista Brasileira de Reprodução Animal. v 43. n 2. p 308-314. 2019. BARUSELLI, Pietro Sampaio; GIMENES, Lindsay Unno; SALES, José Nélio de Sousa. Fisiologia reprodutiva de fêmeas taurinas e zebuínas. Revista Brasileira de Reprodução Animal, v. 31, n. 2, p. 205-211, 2007. BERGAMASCHI, M. A. C. M., MACHADO, R. BARBOSA, R. T. Eficiência reprodutiva das vacas leiteiras. Embrapa - Pecuária Sudeste- Circular Técnica (INFOTECA-E). 2010. Arquivo digitaldisponívelem:. Acesso em: 15 de Novembro de 2021. BORGES, A. M.; MARTINS, T. M. Relação entre nutrição e reprodução em rebanhos mestiços leiteiros. In: IV SIMPÓSIO NACIONAL DE BOVINOCULTURA DE LEITE, 2013, Viçosa. Anais ... Viçosa, p. 215-236, 2013. BORGES, A. et al. Reprodução de vacas mestiças: potencialidade e desafios. Revista Brasileira de Reprodução Animal. v 39. n 1. p 155-163. 2015. CAETANO, R. P. et. al. Manejo reprodutivo da bovinocultura de leite nos assentamentos rurais do município de Ilha Solteira, São Paulo. 8º Congresso de Extensão Universitária da UNESP. ISSN 2176- 9761. p 4. 2015. Arquivo disponível em: CARNEIRO M.A., Bergamaschi M., Machado R. & Barbosa R.T. (2010) Eficiência reprodutiva das vacas leiteiras. Embrapa Pecuária Sudeste. Circular Técnica,64. ISSN: 1981- 2086. CERVO. H J. Fatores intrínsecos à produção, o uso da inseminação artificial e os objetivos de seleção na pecuária leiteira do sul do Brasil, Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil. 2014. 228f. Tese (Doutorado em Zootecnia) - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul – UFRS, Porto Alegre. DA SILVA, Emanuel Isaque Cordeiro. Fisiologia Clínica do Ciclo Estral de Vacas Leiteiras: Desenvolvimento Folicular, Corpo Lúteo e Etapas do Estro. 2020. DA SILVA, Emanuel Isaque Cordeiro. Fisiologia da Reprodução Animal: Ovulação, Controle e Sincronização do Cio. 2020. DA SILVA, et al. Manual de Exame Ginecológico da Vaca. IX Mostra Nacional de Iniciação Científica e Tecnológica Interdisciplinar (MICTI) - IFC - Instituto Federal Catarinense. 2016. Arquivo digital disponível em: Acesso em: 15 de Novembro de 2021. DIAS. J C. et al. Alguns aspectos da interação nutrição-reprodução em bovinos: energia, proteínas, minerais e vitaminas. Revista Pubvet. v. 4 n. 5 p. Art. 738-743. 2010. FERNANDES, A. F. A. OLIVEIRA, J. A. QUEIROZ, S. A. Escore de condição corporal em ruminantes. Revista Ars Veterinária. v. 32, n. 1, p. 55-66, 2016. FERREIRA, A. M. Reprodução da Fêmea Bovina. Fisiologia aplicada e problemas mais comuns (causas e tratamentos). Juiz de Fora, MG: Edição do autor, 2010. FRANCO, F. F. Escore de condição corporal e desempenho reprodutivo de vacas leiteiras mestiças lactantes, Minas Gerais, Brasil. 2015. 59f. Dissertação (Mestrado em Ciências Veterinárias) - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, Uberlândia. GARCIA, J. R. A. SILVA, N. SILVEIRA, W. TEIXEIRA, M. C. C. Estudo epidemiológico de problemas reprodutivos em rebanhos bovinos na bacia leiteira de Goiânia. Revista Eletrônica - Arquivo Brasileiro de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia. v 57. n 6. p 720-725. 2005. IVANOU, A. V. Clínica e reprodução de bovinos leiteiros. Évora, Portugal. 100f. 2015. Dissertação (Mestrado em Medicina Veterinária) - Universidade de Évora - Escola de Ciências e Tecnologia, Évora. MANTECA, X. et al. Bem-estar animal: conceitos e formas práticas de avaliação dos sistemas deprodução de suínos. Revista - Semina: Ciências Agrárias. v. 34 n. 2. p 4213-4229. 2013. MOURA, M. S. et al. Manejo reprodutivo de bovinos na propriedade rural. Revista PUBVET. v. 5. n 9.ed. 156. art. 1055, 2011. MUNIS DE OLIVEIRA, G. Fisiologia da Reprodução Bovina e Métodos de Controle do Ciclo Estral. Trabalho de conclusão do curso de especialização em Reprodução e Produção de Bovinos–UCB. Rio de Janeiro, Brasil, 2006. NETO, Alberto Chambela. Avaliação da taxa de prenhez de vacas de leite com a utilização de protocolos com e sem a presença de folículos estimulantes. Revista Ifes Ciência-ISSN 2359- 4799, v. 5, n. 1, 2019. NOGUEIRA, E. et al. Nutrição aplicada à reprodução de bovinos de corte. Embrapa PantanalCapítuloem livro científico. Embrapa Pantanal - Capítulo em livro científico (ALICE). ed. 10. p 141-156. 2015. PEGORARO, L. M. C.; SAALFELD, M. H.; WEISSHEIMER, C. F.; VIEIRA, A. D. Manejo Reprodutivo em Bovinos de Leite. Embrapa Clima Temperado, id.13081, 2009. PEIXOTO JUNIOR, K.C. FIRMIANO, A. C. CRESPILHO, A.M. Relação entre reprodução e produção debovinos de leite. Revista PUBVET, Londrina. v 7. n 24. ed 247. art. 1635. 2013. PEREIRA, M.A et al. Parâmetros da Fisiologia reprodutiva e utilização de hormônios na sincronizaçãode estro em vacas leiteiras. Revista VeZ em Minas. a XXII. p 117. 2013. PRATA, M. A.; PEREIRA, M. C.; FARO, L; CARDOSO, V. L. et al. Efeito do intervalo de partos sobre a eficiência produtiva e econômica em rebanhos gir leiteiro. B. Indústr. Anim., Nova Odessa, v.71, n.1, p.1-7, 2014. Rebanho bovino tem leve alta em 2019, após dois anosseguidos de quedas. Agência de notícias IBGE, 2020. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 26, setembro de 2021. RENNO F.P; BARLETTA, R.V.; FRIETAS JUNIOR J.E.; et al. Escore de condição corporal e sua relação com produtividade, saúde e bem estar de vacas em lactação. Em: 1st international Symposium of Dairy Cattle. III Simpósio Nacional de Bovincultrura Leiteira. Universidade Federal de Viçosa, MG. Novembro 2011. RUAS, J. R. M; MENESES, A. C.; CARVALHO, B. C.; QUEIROZ, D. S.; SILVA, E. A. da; FERREIRA, J. J. Sistema de produção de leite com vacas F1 Holandês x Zebu. Informe Agropecuário, v.31, p.63-71, 2010. SANTOS, M de. A. R. Efficiency of two doses of D-cloprostenol for synchronization of estrus in bovines in the different phases of the estrous cycle. Minas Gerais, Brasil. 46 f. 2001. Dissertação (Mestrado em Zootecnia e Recursos Pesqueiros) - Universidade Jose do Rosario Vellano, Alfenas.. SARTORI, R. GUARDIEIRO, M. M. Fatores nutricionais associados à reprodução de fêmea bovina. Revista Brasileira de Zootecnia. v 39. p 422-432. 2010. SCHAFHAUSER JUNIOR, J. PEGORARO, L. M. C. ZANELA, M. B. Tecnologias para sistemas de produção de leite. Embrapa Clima Temperado - Livro técnico. ed 1. p 437. 2016. SOUSA, G. G. T. et al. Monta natural versus inseminação artificial em bovinos. Revista PUBVET. v 6. n35. ed 222. art. 1473. 2012. TRIANA, E. L. C. JIMENEZ, C. R. TORRES, C A. A. Eficiência reprodutiva em bovinos de leite. Revista Eletrônica da Universidade Federal de Viçosa - UFV. v 1. 2012. Artigo eletrônico disponível em: Acesso em: 02 de outubro de 2021. (shrink)

In recent work, Adlam (2022b), Chen & Goldstein (2022), and Meacham (2023) have defended accounts of laws that take laws to be primitive global constraints. A major advantage of these accounts is that they’re able to accommodate the many different kinds of laws that appear in physical theories. In this paper I’ll present these three accounts, highlight their distinguishing features, and note some key differences that might lead one to favor one of these accounts over the others. I’ll conclude by (...) briefly discussing a version of a “constraint” account that I think is especially attractive. (shrink)

This paper examines two mistakes regarding David Lewis’ Principal Principle that have appeared in the recent literature. These particular mistakes are worth looking at for several reasons: The thoughts that lead to these mistakes are natural ones, the principles that result from these mistakes are untenable, and these mistakes have led to significant misconceptions regarding the role of admissibility and time. After correcting these mistakes, the paper discusses the correct roles of time and admissibility. With these results in hand, the (...) paper concludes by showing that one way of formulating the chance–credence relation has a distinct advantage over its rivals. (shrink)

This paper examines the debate between permissive and impermissive forms of Bayesianism. It briefly discusses some considerations that might be offered by both sides of the debate, and then replies to some new arguments in favor of impermissivism offered by Roger White. First, it argues that White’s (Oxford studies in epistemology, vol 3. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 161–186, 2010) defense of Indifference Principles is unsuccessful. Second, it contends that White’s (Philos Perspect 19:445–459, 2005) arguments against permissive views do not (...) succeed. (shrink)

Representation theorems are often taken to provide the foundations for decision theory. First, they are taken to characterize degrees of belief and utilities. Second, they are taken to justify two fundamental rules of rationality: that we should have probabilistic degrees of belief and that we should act as expected utility maximizers. We argue that representation theorems cannot serve either of these foundational purposes, and that recent attempts to defend the foundational importance of representation theorems are unsuccessful. As a result, we (...) should reject these claims, and lay the foundations of decision theory on firmer ground. (shrink)

Some of the most interesting recent work in formal epistemology has focused on developing accuracy-based approaches to justifying Bayesian norms. These approaches are interesting not only because they offer new ways to justify these norms, but because they potentially offer a way to justify all of these norms by appeal to a single, attractive epistemic goal: having accurate beliefs. Recently, Easwaran & Fitelson (2012) have raised worries regarding whether such “all-accuracy” or “purely alethic” approaches can accommodate and justify evidential Bayesian (...) norms. In response, proponents of purely alethic approaches, such as Pettigrew (2013b) and Joyce (2016), have argued that scoring rule arguments provide us with compatible and purely alethic justifications for the traditional Bayesian norms, including evidential norms. In this paper I raise several challenges to this claim. First, I argue that many of the justifications these scoring rule arguments provide are not compatible. Second, I raise worries for the claim that these scoring rule arguments provide purely alethic justifications. Third, I turn to assess the more general question of whether purely alethic justifications for evidential norms are even possible, and argue that, without making some contentious assumptions, they are not. Fourth, I raise some further worries for the possibility of providing purely alethic justifications for content-sensitive evidential norms, like the Principal Principle. (shrink)

This pair of articles provides a critical commentary on contemporary approaches to statistical mechanical probabilities. These articles focus on the two ways of understanding these probabilities that have received the most attention in the recent literature: the epistemic indifference approach, and the Lewis-style regularity approach. These articles describe these approaches, highlight the main points of contention, and make some attempts to advance the discussion. The first of these articles provides a brief sketch of statistical mechanics, and discusses the indifference approach (...) to statistical mechanical probabilities. (shrink)

This paper examines three accounts of the sleeping beauty case: an account proposed by Adam Elga, an account proposed by David Lewis, and a third account defended in this paper. It provides two reasons for preferring the third account. First, this account does a good job of capturing the temporal continuity of our beliefs, while the accounts favored by Elga and Lewis do not. Second, Elga’s and Lewis’ treatments of the sleeping beauty case lead to highly counterintuitive consequences. The proposed (...) account also leads to counterintuitive consequences, but they’re not as bad as those of Elga’s account, and no worse than those of Lewis’ account. (shrink)

Conditionalization is a widely endorsed rule for updating one’s beliefs. But a sea of complaints have been raised about it, including worries regarding how the rule handles error correction, changing desiderata of theory choice, evidence loss, self-locating beliefs, learning about new theories, and confirmation. In light of such worries, a number of authors have suggested replacing Conditionalization with a different rule — one that appeals to what I’ll call “ur-priors”. But different authors have understood the rule in different ways, and (...) these different understandings solve different problems. In this paper, I aim to map out the terrain regarding these issues. I survey the different problems that might motivate the adoption of such a rule, flesh out the different understandings of the rule that have been proposed, and assess their pros and cons. I conclude by suggesting that one particular batch of proposals, proposals that appeal to what I’ll call “loaded evidential standards”, are especially promising. (shrink)

Deference principles are principles that describe when, and to what extent, it’s rational to defer to others. Recently, some authors have used such principles to argue for Evidential Uniqueness, the claim that for every batch of evidence, there’s a unique doxastic state that it’s permissible for subjects with that total evidence to have. This paper has two aims. The first aim is to assess these deference-based arguments for Evidential Uniqueness. I’ll show that these arguments only work given a particular kind (...) of deference principle, and I’ll argue that there are reasons to reject these kinds of principles. The second aim of this paper is to spell out what a plausible generalized deference principle looks like. I’ll start by offering a principled rationale for taking deference to constrain rational belief. Then I’ll flesh out the kind of deference principle suggested by this rationale. Finally, I’ll show that this principle is both more plausible and more general than the principles used in the deference-based arguments for Evidential Uniqueness. (shrink)

In Reasons and Persons, Parfit (1984) posed a challenge: provide a satisfying normative account that solves the Non-Identity Problem, avoids the Repugnant and Absurd Conclusions, and solves the Mere-Addition Paradox. In response, some have suggested that we look toward person-affecting views of morality for a solution. But the person-affecting views that have been offered so far have been unable to satisfy Parfit's four requirements, and these views have been subject to a number of independent complaints. This paper describes a person-affecting (...) account which meets Parfit's challenge. The account satisfies Parfit's four requirements, and avoids many of the criticisms that have been raised against person-affecting views. (shrink)

An adequate account of laws should satisfy at least five desiderata: it should provide a unified account of laws and chances, it should yield plausible relations between laws and chances, it should vindicate numerical chance assignments, it should accommodate dynamical and non-dynamical chances, and it should accommodate a plausible range of nomic possibilities. No extant account of laws satisfies these desiderata. This paper presents a non-Humean account of laws, the Nomic Likelihood Account, that does.

At the heart of the Bayesianism is a rule, Conditionalization, which tells us how to update our beliefs. Typical formulations of this rule are underspecified. This paper considers how, exactly, this rule should be formulated. It focuses on three issues: when a subject’s evidence is received, whether the rule prescribes sequential or interval updates, and whether the rule is narrow or wide scope. After examining these issues, it argues that there are two distinct and equally viable versions of Conditionalization to (...) choose from. And which version we choose has interesting ramifications, bearing on issues such as whether Conditionalization can handle continuous evidence, and whether Jeffrey Conditionalization is really a generalization of Conditionalization. (shrink)

In “Bayesianism, Infinite Decisions, and Binding”, Arntzenius et al. (Mind 113:251–283, 2004 ) present cases in which agents who cannot bind themselves are driven by standard decision theory to choose sequences of actions with disastrous consequences. They defend standard decision theory by arguing that if a decision rule leads agents to disaster only when they cannot bind themselves, this should not be taken to be a mark against the decision rule. I show that this claim has surprising implications for a (...) number of other debates in decision theory. I then assess the plausibility of this claim, and suggest that it should be rejected. (shrink)

Several variants of Lewis's Best System Account of Lawhood have been proposed that avoid its commitment to perfectly natural properties. There has been little discussion of the relative merits of these proposals, and little discussion of how one might extend this strategy to provide natural property-free variants of Lewis's other accounts, such as his accounts of duplication, intrinsicality, causation, counterfactuals, and reference. We undertake these projects in this paper. We begin by providing a framework for classifying and assessing the variants (...) of the Best System Account. We then evaluate these proposals, and identify the most promising candidates. We go on to develop a proposal for systematically modifying Lewis's other accounts so that they, too, avoid commitment to perfectly natural properties. We conclude by briefly considering a different route one might take to developing natural property-free versions of Lewis's other accounts, drawing on recent work by Williams. (shrink)

Standard decision theory has trouble handling cases involving acts without finite expected values. This paper has two aims. First, building on earlier work by Colyvan (2008), Easwaran (2014), and Lauwers and Vallentyne (2016), it develops a proposal for dealing with such cases, Difference Minimizing Theory. Difference Minimizing Theory provides satisfactory verdicts in a broader range of cases than its predecessors. And it vindicates two highly plausible principles of standard decision theory, Stochastic Equivalence and Stochastic Dominance. The second aim is to (...) assess some recent arguments against Stochastic Equivalence and Stochastic Dominance. If successful, these arguments refute Difference Minimizing Theory. This paper contends that these arguments are not successful. (shrink)

This pair of articles provides a critical commentary on contemporary approaches to statistical mechanical probabilities. These articles focus on the two ways of understanding these probabilities that have received the most attention in the recent literature: the epistemic indifference approach, and the Lewis-style regularity approach. These articles describe these approaches, highlight the main points of contention, and make some attempts to advance the discussion. The second of these articles discusses the regularity approach to statistical mechanical probabilities, and describes some areas (...) where further research is needed. (shrink)

I argue that the theory of chance proposed by David Lewis has three problems: (i) it is time asymmetric in a manner incompatible with some of the chance theories of physics, (ii) it is incompatible with statistical mechanical chances, and (iii) the content of Lewis's Principal Principle depends on how admissibility is cashed out, but there is no agreement as to what admissible evidence should be. I proposes two modifications of Lewis's theory which resolve these difficulties. I conclude by tentatively (...) proposing a third modification of Lewis's theory, one which explains many of the common features shared by the chance theories of physics. (shrink)

A number of cases involving self-locating beliefs have been discussed in the Bayesian literature. I suggest that many of these cases, such as the sleeping beauty case, are entangled with issues that are independent of self-locating beliefs per se. In light of this, I propose a division of labor: we should address each of these issues separately before we try to provide a comprehensive account of belief updating. By way of example, I sketch some ways of extending Bayesianism in order (...) to accommodate these issues. Then, putting these other issues aside, I sketch some ways of extending Bayesianism in order to accommodate self-locating beliefs. Finally, I propose a constraint on updating rules, the "Learning Principle", which rules out certain kinds of troubling belief changes, and I use this principle to assess some of the available options. (shrink)

Evidential Uniqueness is the thesis that, for any batch of evidence, there’s a unique doxastic state that a subject with that evidence should have. One of the most common kinds of objections to views that violate Evidential Uniqueness are arbitrariness objections – objections to the effect that views that don’t satisfy Evidential Uniqueness lead to unacceptable arbitrariness. The goal of this paper is to examine a variety of arbitrariness objections that have appeared in the literature, and to assess the extent (...) to which these objections bolster the case for Evidential Uniqueness. After examining a number of different arbitrariness objections, I’ll conclude that, by and large, these objections do little to bolster the case for Evidential Uniqueness. (shrink)

In recent work, Callender and Cohen (2009) and Hoefer (2007) have proposed variants of the account of chance proposed by Lewis (1994). One of the ways in which these accounts diverge from Lewis’s is that they allow special sciences and the macroscopic realm to have chances that are autonomous from those of physics and the microscopic realm. A worry for these proposals is that autonomous chances may place incompatible constraints on rational belief. I examine this worry, and attempt to determine (...) (i) what kinds of conflicts would be problematic, and (ii) whether these proposals lead to problematic conflicts. After working through a pair of cases, I conclude that these proposals do give rise to problematic conflicts. (shrink)

Theories that use expected utility maximization to evaluate acts have difficulty handling cases with infinitely many utility contributions. In this paper I present and motivate a way of modifying such theories to deal with these cases, employing what I call “Direct Difference Taking”. This proposal has a number of desirable features: it’s natural and well-motivated, it satisfies natural dominance intuitions, and it yields plausible prescriptions in a wide range of cases. I then compare my account to the most plausible alternative, (...) a proposal offered by Arntzenius :31–58, 2014). I argue that while Arntzenius’s proposal has many attractive features, it runs into a number of problems which Direct Difference Taking avoids. (shrink)

This is a review of Toby Handfield's book, "A Philosophical Guide to Chance", that discusses Handfield's Debunking Argument against realist accounts of chance.

Information can be public among a group. Whether or not information is public matters, for example, for accounts of interdependent rational choice, of communication, and of joint intention. A standard analysis of public information identifies it with (some variant of) common belief. The latter notion is stipulatively defined as an infinite conjunction: for p to be commonly believed is for it to believed by all members of a group, for all members to believe that all members believe it, and so (...) forth. This analysis is often presupposed without much argument in philosophy. Theoretical entrenchment or intuitions about cases might give some traction on the question, but give little insight about why the identification holds, if it does. The strategy of this paper is to characterize a practical-normative role for information being public, and show that the only things that play that role are (variants of) common belief as stipulatively characterized. In more detail: a functional role for “taking a proposition for granted” in non-isolated decision making is characterized. I then present some minimal conditions under which such an attitude is correctly held. The key assumption links this attitude to beliefs about what is public. From minimal a priori principles, we can argue that a proposition being public among a group entails common commitment to believe among that group. Later sections explore partial converses to this result, the factivity of publicity and publicity from the perspective of outsiders to the group, and objections to the aprioricity of the result deriving from a posteriori existential presuppositions. (shrink)

The question of the cognitive role of fictionality is this: what is the correct cognitive attitude to take to p, when it is fictional that p? We began by considering one answer to this question, implicit in the work of Kendall Walton, that the correct response to a fictional proposition is to imagine that proposition. However, this approach is silent in cases of fictional incompleteness, where neither p nor its negation are fictional. We argue that that Waltonians should embrace a (...) pluralistic account of the cognitive role of fictional incompleteness: in some cases of fictional incompleteness, we are permitted to resolve the incompleteness during our engagement with the target fiction, and in other cases, we are obliged not to resolve the incompleteness. But though pluralism is accommodated by Walton’s wider account of fictionality, it puts tension on his motivating idea that fictionality stands to the imagination as truth stands to belief. And so we develop a rival conception of the cognitive role of fictionality that is built around a different analogy: on this evidentialist approach, (known) fictionality stands to the imagination as evidence stands to credence. (shrink)

This article investigates the claim that some truths are fundamentally or really true — and that other truths are not. Such a distinction can help us reconcile radically minimal metaphysical views with the verities of common sense. I develop an understanding of the distinction whereby Fundamentality is not itself a metaphysical distinction, but rather a device that must be presupposed to express metaphysical distinctions. Drawing on recent work by Rayo on anti-Quinean theories of ontological commitments, I formulate a rigourous theory (...) of the notion. In the final sections, I show how this package dovetails with ' interpretationist' theories of meaning to give sober content to thought that some things — perhaps sets, or gerrymandered mereological sums — can be 'postulated into existence'. (shrink)

The concept of moral wrongness, many think, has a distinctive kind of referential stability, brought out by moral twin earth cases. This article offers a new account of the source of this stability, deriving it from a metaphysics of content: “substantive” radical interpretation, and first-order normative assumptions. This story is distinguished from extant “reference magnetic” explanations of the phenomenon, and objections and replies are considered.

The current prevailing view is that participation in biomedical research is above and beyond the call of duty. While some commentators have offered reasons against this, we propose a novel public goods argument for an obligation to participate in biomedical research. Biomedical knowledge is a public good, available to any individual even if that individual does not contribute to it. Participation in research is a critical way to support an important public good. Consequently, all have a duty to participate. The (...) current social norm is that individuals participate only if they have a good reason to do so. The public goods argument implies that individuals should participate unless they have a good reason not to. Such a shift would be of great aid to the progress of biomedical research, eventually making society significantly healthier and longer lived. (shrink)

Sometimes it is indeterminate what an agent morally ought do. This generates a Decision Ought Challenge—to give moral guidance to agents in such a scenario. This article is a field guide to the options for a theory of the decision ought for cases of indeterminacy. Three categories of view are evaluated, and the best representative for each is identified.

Many accounts of structural rationality give a special role to logic. This paper reviews the problem case of clear-eyed logical uncertainty. An account of rational norms on belief that does not give a special role to logic is developed: doxastic probabilism.

Origin of life on earth transpired once and from then on, it emerges as an endless eternal process. Matter and energy are constants of the cosmos and the hypothesis is that the origin of life is a moment when these constants intertwined or interacted. Energy from the cosmos interacted with inorganic matter to support matter with retention of this riveted energy, as energy to be circulated within the primitive channelized structures to conserve energy by the materialization of the proton homeostasis (...) mechanisms developed from the obtainable inorganic matter. The driver for these processes as we now confirm, exists in the quantum world and through quantum phenomenal processes could have combined these constants to create the magic of life. Primitive earth was a chemical reactive system that triggered a macromolecular evolution by means of open thermodynamic systems, driven by cyclic gradients of temperature, electromagnetic radiation and chemical potentials which sustained life and proto-consciousness in the first life forms driven by the quantum processes. The origin of life is always an intriguing topic but the purpose for finding the cause should never be inclined towards obliterating it; for if that is the case, the further we seek, the farther it will go. (shrink)

This paper examines two puzzles of indeterminacy. The first puzzle concerns the hypothesis that there is a unified phenomenon of indeterminacy. How are we to reconcile this with the apparent diversity of reactions that indeterminacy prompts? The second puzzle focuses narrowly on borderline cases of vague predicates. How are we to account for the lack of theoretical consensus about what the proper reaction to borderline cases is? I suggest (building on work by Maudlin) that the characteristic feature of indeterminacy is (...) alethic normative silence, and use this to explain both plurality and lack of consensus. (shrink)

This book is a compilation of the work published by the present authors in various scientific journals mainly focused on understanding how quantum physics could decipher the experiences observed and reported during near-death and end-of-life situations. The authors claim that various theories and models proposed herein (though not propounding to be a complete one) are just an attempt to understand few aspects associated with such experiences connected to the phenomenon of death. They investigate the possible role of the quantum phenomenon (...) in the occurrence of these events and call for a detailed scientific investigation to validate any hypotheses made. (shrink)

Joyce (1998) gives an argument for probabilism: the doctrine that rational credences should conform to the axioms of probability. In doing so, he provides a distinctive take on how the normative force of probabilism relates to the injunction to believe what is true. But Joyce presupposes that the truth values of the propositions over which credences are defined are classical. I generalize the core of Joyce’s argument to remove this presupposition. On the same assumptions as Joyce uses, the credences of (...) a rational agent should always be weighted averages of truth value assignments. In the special case where the truth values are classical, the weighted averages of truth value assignments are exactly the probability functions. But in the more general case, probabilistic axioms formulated in terms of classical logic are violated—but we will show that generalized versions of the axioms formulated in terms of non-classical logics are satisfied. (shrink)

Supervaluationism is often described as the most popular semantic treatment of indeterminacy. There’s little consensus, however, about how to fill out the bare-bones idea to include a characterization of logical consequence. The paper explores one methodology for choosing between the logics: pick a logic thatnorms beliefas classical consequence is standardly thought to do. The main focus of the paper considers a variant of standard supervaluational, on which we can characterizedegrees of determinacy. It applies the methodology above to focus ondegree logic. (...) This is developed first in a basic, single-premise case; and then extended to the multipremise case, and to allowdegreesof consequence. The metatheoretic properties of degree logic are set out. On the positive side, the logic is supraclassical—all classical valid sequents are degree logic valid. Strikingly, metarules such as cut and conjunction introduction fail. (shrink)

In the literature on supervaluationism, a central source of concern has been the acceptability, or otherwise, of its alleged logical revisionism. I attack the presupposition of this debate: arguing that when properly construed, there is no sense in which supervaluational consequence is revisionary. I provide new considerations supporting the claim that the supervaluational consequence should be characterized in a ‘global’ way. But pace Williamson (1994) and Keefe (2000), I argue that supervaluationism does not give rise to counterexamples to familiar inference-patterns (...) such as reductio and conditional proof. (shrink)

This case study is a retrospection of my family’s experiences that highlight several ELE facets. Following a description, we attempt to explain some of these phenomena from the perspectives of science and other germane disciplines.

Might it be that world itself, independently of what we know about it or how we represent it, is metaphysically indeterminate? This article tackles in turn a series of questions: In what sorts of cases might we posit metaphysical indeterminacy? What is it for a given case of indefiniteness to be 'metaphysical'? How does the phenomenon relate to 'ontic vagueness', the existence of 'vague objects', 'de re indeterminacy' and the like? How might the logic work? Are there reasons for postulating (...) this distinctive sort of indefiniteness? Conversely, are there reasons for denying that there is indefiniteness of this sort? (shrink)

There are advantages to thrift over honest toil. If we can make do without numbers we avoid challenging questions over the metaphysics and epistemology of such entities; and we have a good idea, I think, of what a nominalistic metaphysics should look like. But minimizing ontology brings its own problems; for it seems to lead to error theory— saying that large swathes of common-sense and best science are false. Should recherche philosophical arguments really convince us to give all this up? (...) Such Moorean considerations are explicitly part of the motivation for the recent resurgence of structured metaphysics, which allow a minimal (perhaps nominalistic) fundamental ontology, while avoiding error-theory by adopting a permissive stance towards ontology that can be argued to be grounded in the fundamental. This paper evaluates the Moorean arguments, identifying key epistemological assumptions. On the assumption that Moorean arguments can be used to rule out error-theory, I examine deflationary ‘representationalist’ rivals to the structured metaphysics reaction. Quinean paraphrase, fictionalist claims about syntax and semantics are considered and criticized. In the final section, a ‘direct’ deflationary strategy is outlined and the theoretical obligations that it faces are articulated. The position advocated may have us talking a lot like a friend of structured metaphysics—but with a very different conception of what we’re up to. (shrink)

Lewis (1973) gave a short argument against conditional excluded middle, based on his treatment of ‘might’ counterfactuals. Bennett (2003), with much of the recent literature, gives an alternative take on ‘might’ counterfactuals. But Bennett claims the might-argument against CEM still goes through. This turns on a specific claim I call Bennett’s Hypothesis. I argue that independently of issues to do with the proper analysis of might-counterfactuals, Bennett’s Hypothesis is inconsistent with CEM. But Bennett’s Hypothesis is independently objectionable, so we should (...) resolve this tension by dropping the Hypothesis, not by dropping CEM. (shrink)

This paper outlines Lewis’s favoured foundational account of linguistic representation, and outlines and briefly evaluates variations and modifications. Section 1 gives an opinionated exegesis of Lewis’ work on the foundations of reference—his interpretationism. I look at the way that the metaphysical distinction between natural and non-natural properties came to play a central role in his thinking about language. Lewis’s own deployment of this notion has implausible commitments, so in section 2 I consider variations and alternatives. Section 3 briefly considers a (...) buck-passing strategy involving fine-grained linguistic conventions. (shrink)

Jeff Paris proves a generalized Dutch Book theorem. If a belief state is not a generalized probability then one faces ‘sure loss’ books of bets. In Williams I showed that Joyce’s accuracy-domination theorem applies to the same set of generalized probabilities. What is the relationship between these two results? This note shows that both results are easy corollaries of the core result that Paris appeals to in proving his dutch book theorem. We see that every point of accuracy-domination defines a (...) dutch book, but we only have a partial converse. (shrink)

Decisions are made under uncertainty when there are distinct outcomes of a given action, and one is uncertain to which the act will lead. Decisions are made under indeterminacy when there are distinct outcomes of a given action, and it is indeterminate to which the act will lead. This paper develops a theory of (synchronic and diachronic) decision-making under indeterminacy that portrays the rational response to such situations as inconstant. Rational agents have to capriciously and randomly choose how to resolve (...) the indeterminacy relevant to a given choice-situation, but such capricious choices once made constrain how they will choose in the future. The account is illustrated by the case of self-interested action in situations where it is indeterminate whether you yourself will survive to benefit or suffer the consequences. The conclusion emphasizes some distinctive anti-hedging predictions of the account. (shrink)

This essay explores the thesis that for vague predicates, uncertainty over whether a borderline instance x of red/large/tall/good is to be understood as practical uncertainty over whether to treat x as red/large/tall/good. Expressivist and quasi-realist treatments of vague predicates due to John MacFarlane and Daniel Elstein provide the stalking-horse. It examines the notion of treating/counting a thing as F , and links a central question about our attitudes to vague predications to normative evaluation of plans to treat a thing as (...) F . The essay examines how the account applies to normatively defective or contested terms. The final section raises a puzzle about the mechanics of MacFarlane’s detailed implementation for the case of gradable adjectives. (shrink)

In some sense, survival seems to be an intrinsic matter. Whether or not you survive some event seems to depend on what goes on with you yourself —what happens in the environment shouldn’t make a difference. Likewise, being a person at a time seems intrinsic. The principle that survival seems intrinsic is one factor which makes personal fission puzzles so awkward. Fission scenarios present cases where if survival is an intrinsic matter, it appears that an individual could survive twice over. (...) But it’s well known that standard notions of “intrinsicality” won’t do to articulate the sense in which survival is intrinsic, since ‘personhood’ appears to be a maximal property. We formulate a sense in which survival and personhood (and perhaps other maximal properties) may be almost intrinsic—a sense that would suffice, for example, to ground fission arguments. It turns out that this notion of almost-intrinsicality allows us to formulate a new version of the problem of the many. (shrink)